The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released the October – November – December 2021 Seasonal Weather Forecast. The Climate Outlook indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience depressed rainfall. This will be driven by near to below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline), coupled with warmer than average SSTs over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia). This constitutes a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is not favorable for good rainfall over most of East Africa. Also, Equatorial Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean which implies that ENSO neutral conditions are present. Most Global climate and weather forecasting models predict La Nina condition is likely to develop over the OND season. The distribution of the rainfall in time and space is expected to be generally poor over most areas especially during the month of October and the peak month of November. In the month of December, rainfall reduction is expected over several places in the country as the season draws to an end. The temperature forecast indicates that warmer than average temperatures are likely over most parts of the country during the season. There are also enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures in Eastern Kenya.
Potential Impacts in Disaster Risk Management Sector
Cases of isolated heavy rainfall, which is likely to cause isolated flooding, storms, flash floods, structural failures, and lightening strikes. Other potential impacts / hazards include drought in the ASALs, Bush Fires around Mt. Kenya and South Eastern Lowlands, isolated storms in the Northern parts of the country, and respiratory related diseases due to the enhanced temperatures and dust storms.
Advise to Stakeholders and Public
It is advised that stakeholders invest in effective disaster preparedness planning as we move into the OND 2021 season.
NDMU continues to undertake stakeholders’ sensitizations/awareness creation and capacity building on disaster preparedness for effective response and building back better in recovery. You are encouraged to send a request for sensitization / training to our email email@example.com