Outlook for March-April-May 2024 “Long Rains” Season

Reference is made to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) Seasonal Forecast for the Period March-April-May 2024.

Summary of the Climate Outlook for the March-April-May (MAM) 2024 “Long Rains” season

Above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central, Northern and Southern Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), Northeastern, Southeastern Lowlands, and Northwestern regions. Generally, near-average rainfall with a tendency to above average rainfall is expected over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands. Occasional storms are also likely to be experienced in some parts of the country. The temperature forecast suggests that for the larger part of the country, the season is likely to be warmer than average.

Negative Impacts

  • Floods and flash floods are likely over several parts of the country especially over the Coast,
    Southeastern lowlands, Lake Victoria Basin, parts of the Central and South Rift Valley,
    Northeast and Northwestern parts of the country and urban centers with poor drainage
    systems. This could lead to destruction of property, loss of lives, displacement of people and
    damage of critical infrastructure, resulting in limited access to essential goods and services.
  • Landslides and mudslides are likely over some parts of the Highlands West and East of the
    Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley and the Southeastern lowlands.
  • Lightning strikes are highly probable over the western parts of the country especially in Narok,
    Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega and Bungoma (Mt. Elgon areas) counties.
  • Heavy rainfall could lead to rising water levels in rivers, lakes and dams as well as lake back
    flows.
  • There may be emergence of desert locusts over some parts of the country.
  • Infrastructural damage to key installations
    • Disruption of social economic activities such as education, agriculture and supply chain.

Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Advisory 

DRM stakeholders (at national, county and local/community levels) are encouraged to enhance awareness creation and capacity building on disaster preparedness for effective response.

The public is advised to AVOID crossing areas where water levels would be above their knees when walking, or above the tyres if driving/cycling to mitigate against DROWINING.

County Governments are also encouraged to clear drainages and ensure the drainage systems are well done to avert artificial flooding, especially in the urban areas. Respective stakeholders are also encouraged to ensure water passages, alleys, channels and dried up rivers are cleared of debris, to avoid flooding in the event of sudden storms during the season.

DRM Stakeholders, as well as humanitarian organizations, are advised to enhance the measures that are already being implemented to avert the loss of lives, livelihoods, and livestock.

Generally, we are all urged to keep track of other KMD forecast products (monthly, weekly, and daily forecasts and advisories) for early warning information, and undertake early actions to ensure maximum protection of life and property during the MAM 2024″Long Rains” Season.

NDMU will continue to undertake stakeholders’ sensitizations/awareness creation and capacity building on disaster preparedness for effective response and building back better in recovery, through an all-hazards approach, and whole of society/community approach. You may reach us through our X Handle @NDMU_Kenya  or EMAIL: info.ndmu@disastermanagement.go.ke